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New Brexit Report Signals Bleak Prospects For Jobs

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

New Brexit Report Signals Bleak Prospects For Jobs As GMB Warns, Scottish Economy A ‘Sitting Duck’

Union intensifies calls for publication of UK Government Brexit Impact papers and defence of Scotland’s key economic sectors

GMB Scotland has today (Wednesday 29 November) joined the growing calls for the UK Government to publish its ‘Brexit Impact’ papers in full after the findings of a new report outlined bleak prospects for the future of Scottish employment as a result of EU withdrawal.

Brexit and the Sectors of the Scottish Economy’, commissioned by GMB Scotland and produced by the University of Strathclyde’s Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI), provides a detailed analysis of the economic and employment value of Scotland’s exports to the EU, non EU countries and the rest of the UK on a sector by sector basis.

The report identifies the exposure facing Scotland as a result of EU withdrawal, calling into question the UK Government’s current negotiating strategy and how this will affect over £12 billion worth of exports from Scotland to the EU, supporting an estimated 134,000 jobs.

FAI analysis also shows distinct differences between Scotland’s most valuable export sectors to the EU compared to the UK as a whole, notably in the role of food and drink production, while prompting questions about the further susceptibility of the Scottish economy to future trading arrangements and domestic economic performance.

Previous FAI economic modelling in October estimated that Brexit could cost the Scottish economy between 30,000 and 80,000 jobs over the next decade.

GMB Scotland Secretary Gary Smith said: “Now, more than ever, we need the UK Government to come clean on what it knows about the impact of Brexit on the Scottish economy and the livelihoods dependent on our trade with the EU.

Reinforced by previous analysis warning Scotland could lose as many as 80,000 jobs in a ‘hard Brexit’ scenario, the FAI lays out what’s on the line in terms of jobs and value as a result of EU withdrawal - £12.3 billion in exports supporting 134,000 jobs.

Meanwhile, we are at the mercy of negotiators representing an increasingly fractured and weak UK government, with no confidence or evidence that Scotland’s distinct economic interests are being suitably recognised or defended.

The very least the UK Government can do is publish these Brexit impact papers in full so that between now and March 2019, we can plan as much as possible to defend jobs as best we can.

But let’s be clear that there will be significant job losses as a result of Brexit, more will be vulnerable to future trade deal negotiations and there is no guarantee of a UK ‘cushion effect’ with poor forecasts for domestic economic growth.

So against the backdrop of Brexit, the Scottish economy resembles a sitting duck.”


Contact: Peter Welsh, GMB Scotland Communications, on 07976 447077.

Notes to Editors:

Copies of the Fraser of Allander Report, Brexit and the Sectors of the Scottish Economy, can be downloaded here or from additional resourses below.

Additional Resources

Brexit And The Sectors Of The Scottish Economy

download pdf2492Kb (pdf) - 29 November 2017

A new report commissioned by GMB Scotland and produced by the University of Strathclyde’s Fraser of Allander Institute