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On Brexit Cliff Edge

Monday, April 8, 2019

On Brexit Cliff Edge, New Report Shows Rise In Jobs And Value Tied To EU Exports Across Scotland

GMB Scotland has today (Monday 8 April) warned that a new economic report demonstrates that the best Brexit for the Scottish economy would be no Brexit at all.

An updated report, Brexit and the Sectors of the Scottish Economy, commissioned by GMB Scotland and produced by the Fraser of Allander Institute, reveals Scotland exports £14.9 billion worth of goods and services to the EU and around 144,000 jobs are linked to demand from the EU for Scottish exports.

It shows that 9,000 more jobs are tied to that trade since the publication of the Fraser of Allander’s initial analysis in November 2017 with increased export value evident in the key sectors of petroleum and food and drink manufacturing.

This comes on the back of official Scottish Government figures published earlier this year which showed that exports to the EU rose by £1.7bn between 2016 and 2017.

Previous FAI economic modelling estimated that Brexit could cost the Scottish economy between 30,000 and 80,000 jobs over the next decade.

GMB Scotland Secretary Gary Smith said: “Let’s be clear that for Scotland the best Brexit would be no Brexit at all but in absence of that there needs to be an honest analysis of our future prospects.

"Scotland’s economic and employment interdependence with the EU has actually increased and irrespective of what form the UK’s withdrawal looks like in the final analysis, it will be detrimental to jobs and prosperity across the country.

"These are the hard facts facing Scotland so this week we should not entertain any nonsense from Brexit cheerleaders about ‘taking back control’ or a ‘jobs first Brexit’ – even at the eleventh hour the very least those driving us over the cliff edge can do is tell the truth.

"The price of this political failure will likely be measured in divestment, redundancies and closures across Scotland; a new era of economic and industrial decline that will take hold over the next few years and take a generation from which to recover.”


Contact: Peter Welsh, GMB Scotland Communications, on 07976 447077.

Notes to Editors:

Copies of the original Fraser of Allander Institute Report, ‘Brexit and the Sectors of the Scottish Economy’, can be accessed at

Export Statistics Scotland, published 30 January 2019, can be accessed at:

Additional Resources

Fraser of Allander - GMB Economic Analysis: Scottish Economy 'Moving Closer To EU'

download pdf1373Kb (pdf) - 08 April 2019

An updated report, ‘Brexit and the Sectors of the Scottish Economy’, commissioned by GMB Scotland and produced by the Fraser of Allander Institute